How to use Nexus Tracker

A short guide to reading prices, moves and signals, with plain-language definitions of every term you will see. You do not need an account to use any of it.

What this site does

Nexus Tracker follows prices on Kalshi's prediction markets. It shows which markets moved the most, flags moves that came with unusual trading, and keeps a price history for each market. The digest adds written analysis. It is an information tool, not a place to trade and not advice.

Quick start

Start on the dashboard. "Biggest moves in the last 24 hours" shows where prices changed most.
Check what the data is flagging. Those are moves that came with heavier trading than usual, which makes them more worth a look than a quiet drift.
Open a market. Select its question to see the price history, the high and low, and recent activity.
Read the analysis. Posts in the digest explain what moved and why it may or may not matter.
Check the live price on Kalshi. Prices here refresh on a schedule and can lag the exchange.
Decide for yourself. Nothing here predicts what will happen or tells you what to do.

Reading the dashboard

Biggest moves

The five markets whose price changed the most over the last 24 hours. Each row shows the question, its category, the current price, and the change in points. The bar between 0% and 100% shows the move: the hollow dot is where the price stood a day ago, the solid dot is where it is now, and the line between them is the size of the move. Color shows direction, and a + or − sign always backs it up.

The "Prices updated" note above the list tells you how fresh the numbers are.

What the data is flagging

A price move on its own can be noise. A move that comes with a surge in trading is more telling, so this section looks for both. A market is flagged when its price moved at least 4 points in 24 hours, sits between 6% and 94%, and has at least a day of history.

Each flag shows a strength (Moderate or Strong), a direction ("Moving toward Yes" or "Moving toward No"), and a sentence such as "Up 21 pts to 71% in the last 24 hours, on 3.4× its usual daily volume." Strength combines how big the move was with how heavy the trading was compared with that market's usual day. Weak flags are hidden, and markets with very little trading never rank above weak.

A flag describes recent activity. It does not say how likely an outcome is.

All markets

Every tracked market, grouped by category. Use the category buttons to filter and the search box to find a topic. Each row shows the price, the change over the last 24 hours, and a small seven-day line so you can see the recent path at a glance. Select a question to open its page.

The market page

Price and change. The headline number is the current price. Beside it is the change over the last 24 hours.
Price chart. Switch between 24 hours, 7 days and 30 days. Hover or touch the chart to read the exact price and time. Times are in UTC.
High, low and change. The highest and lowest price in the chosen range, and how far the price moved over it.
Recent activity. The same flag as on the dashboard, or a note that nothing unusual stood out.
Analysis. Written posts that cover this market.
Market details. When it closes, how many contracts traded in 24 hours, when the price was last updated, and its Kalshi ticker.

Key terms

24-hour move: How much a price changed over the last day, in points. Shown with a + or − sign.
Category: The topic group a market belongs to, such as Economics or Weather.
Chance: A price read as a probability. A price of 63¢ means traders are collectively putting the chance at roughly 63%. It is the crowd's estimate, not a fact.
Close date: When trading in a market is scheduled to end. A market can settle after it closes, once the outcome is known.
Closed market: A market that has stopped trading. Its page stays up with a "Closed" badge and shows the last price recorded.
Contract: What people trade on Kalshi. A contract on a Yes or No question pays $1 if the answer turns out to be Yes and nothing if it is No.
High and low: The highest and lowest price a market reached in the range shown on its chart.
Liquidity (thin trading): How easily contracts change hands. In a thin market only a few contracts trade, so one order can move the price a long way. Moves in thin markets tell you less.
Moving toward Yes or No: Which way the price moved. A rising price is moving toward Yes, because traders are paying more for Yes. A falling price is moving toward No.
Points (pts): The unit for price changes. Going from 41% to 63% is +22 points, not +22%.
Prediction market: A market where people trade on the outcome of a real-world event, such as an economic report or a weather record. Prices rise and fall as people trade.
Price: What one Yes contract costs, from 1¢ to 99¢. Shown here as a percentage, so 63¢ appears as 63%.
Signal: A flag on a market whose price moved meaningfully on heavier trading than usual. It describes recent activity. It is not a prediction or a recommendation.
Signal strength: How unusual the activity is: Moderate or Strong (weak ones are hidden). It adds up the size of the move and how heavy the trading was. It does not measure how likely an outcome is.
Sparkline: The small line beside each market on the dashboard. It shows the price over the last seven days.
Ticker: Kalshi's short code for a market. It appears under Market details and identifies the market on Kalshi.
UTC: The time standard used for chart times and publish dates, so everyone sees the same clock whatever their time zone.
Volume: The number of contracts traded. "Traded in 24 hours" is the volume over the last day. Heavy volume means more people are acting on a price.
Volume vs usual (the × figure): Today's volume compared with the market's usual daily volume. "3.4× its usual daily volume" means about three and a half times a normal day.
Yes and No: The two sides of every market. The price shown is always the price of Yes. The price of No is 100 minus it.

What it cannot tell you

Prices can lag. They refresh on a schedule, not live. Check the price on Kalshi before you act.
Moves often reverse. A price already reflects what traders know, and a big move does not mean the next one goes the same way.
New markets have no flags. A signal needs a full day of history to compare against.
Quiet markets are left out. Markets with very little trading are not tracked, because their prices say little.
Kalshi is not available everywhere. Check that you are eligible to trade where you live. Nexus Tracker is independent of Kalshi.

Not financial advice. These signals describe recent price and volume changes on Kalshi markets. They are not predictions, recommendations, or financial advice, and they can be wrong. Prices already reflect what traders know, moves often reverse, and trading event contracts can lose you money. Nexus Solutions Group is not responsible for any losses from decisions made using this information. Read the full disclaimer.